WATCH

Posted at 7:12 a.m. ET

We are entering a critical period.  Lehman Brothers, one of the great Wall Street firms, is filing for bankruptcy.  A.I.G., the insurance giant, is in serious trouble.  An AFP news report says, "The United States is mired in a 'once-in-a century' financial crisis which is now more than likely to spark a recession, former Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan said Sunday."

At the same time, there is serious military action along the Pakistan/Afghanistan border.  An exclusive Urgent Agenda source writes us:

Afghans tend to wonder out loud, how are the Taliban suddenly so sophisticated? Couple that with our increased willingness to attack across the border and you get the picture. Powerful forces in Pakistan, both official and informal,
have been causing misery across the border. Until this is solved, we
will face the same problems year after year.

The "increased willingness" is the key.  Clearly, President Bush has made a decision to permit some attacks across the border, possibly in the hope of getting Osama bin Laden.  Will there be an October surprise?

And we are in the midst of one of the most critical elections in our history, where the differences between the candidates is stark.  Barack Obama was expected by many, even three weeks ago, to be a shoo-in in this Democratic year.  Now there has been a reversal.  He must fight for every vote, and the possibility of his losing grows greater with the release of every poll.  The new pressure is showing in his demeanor, his once-sure style.  The man, at times, seems incapable of standing up under pressure as he competes for the highest-pressure job in the world.  A highly qualified Urgent Agenda source tells us:

My observations of him on TV/Web reveal him to be  approaching a breaking point.  He's in a place he's never been before,  doesn't like it and truly doesn't know how to cope.  I expect a major explosion, in public within the next  2 weeks.  It has to happen.

We stress that this is an observation and an opinion, but the Obama campaign is clearly rattled and sounding desperate.  The descent yesterday into a coordinated attack on McCain, citing his age and previous bouts with skin cancer, is an indicator.

"Isn't it a time?" the leftist folk singers used to sing.  Yes, it is.  Watch all these things closely in the weeks ahead.  This week, watch the tracking polls to see if the McCain bounce, intact thus far, continues to hold.  Watch Sarah Palin.  Will the glow wear off, or will she soar further, helped by a public resentful of the relentless press assault.  We are halfway through September.  October may shape up as one of the most critical months in modern American history.

September 15, 2008.